On August 5, 2019, the Narendra Modi government made a significant move by revoking Article 370 of the Indian Constitution, which had granted special autonomy to the state of Jammu and Kashmir. This decision led to the bifurcation of the state into two federally-governed union territories: Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), and Ladakh. As India gears up for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, this decision remains a focal point of discussion and debate.

Despite the long-overdue elections to the J&K assembly, mandated by the Supreme Court of India to be conducted by September this year, the focus is primarily on the parliamentary elections. Prime Minister Modi recently assured that assembly elections would be held soon, alongside the restoration of statehood to Jammu and Kashmir.

J&K and Ladakh collectively hold six seats in the 545-member Lok Sabha (two MPs are nominated). The voting process in these union territories will unfold in five phases, beginning with Udhampur on April 19, followed by Jammu on April 26, Anantnag-Rajouri on May 7, Srinagar on May 13, and concluding with Baramulla and Ladakh on May 20. The counting of votes is scheduled for June 4.

Among these seats, three are situated in the Muslim-dominated Kashmir valley, while the remaining two are in the Hindu-majority Jammu region. The electoral landscape is diverse and reflects the region's complex socio-political dynamics.

The main contenders in J&K include national parties such as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress, alongside regional parties like the Farooq Abdullah-led National Conference (NC), the Mehbooba Mufti-led People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Sajad Ghani Lone-led J&K People’s Conference (JKPC), Altaf Bukhari-led Apni Party, and the Ghulam Nabi Azad-led Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP). Notably, the Apni Party and DPAP emerged post-2019, reflecting the evolving political landscape in the region.

Following the revocation of J&K’s autonomy in 2019, various local parties critical of Modi’s policies on Kashmir united to form the People’s Alliance on Gupkar Declaration (PAGD) or the Gupkar Alliance. This alliance advocated for the restoration of democracy in J&K and opposed the removal of the special status that safeguarded the rights of J&K’s permanent residents. However, internal rifts led to the disintegration of the alliance in 2021. Subsequently, in 2023, the formation of the Congress-led INDIA bloc saw the NC and PDP joining forces within this coalition.

The upcoming general elections will witness a notable contest between the NC and PDP in J&K, as disagreements over seat-sharing have led to their divergence. This divergence underscores the complexities and shifting alliances in the region's political landscape as parties manoeuvre to secure their positions and influence.

The recent demand by the PDP for the National Conference’s NC support in the Anantnag-Rajouri constituency, in exchange for backing the NC in Srinagar and Baramulla, has stirred a significant rift.

The NC swiftly refused this demand, citing the PDP's diminished standing since the 2019 elections, where it ranked third in vote share in the Kashmir valley, trailing behind the NC and JKPC. Moreover, the PDP has experienced a series of defections to other parties, further weakening its position.

As a consequence of this disagreement, both the NC and PDP will contest fiercely in all three seats in the Kashmir valley. The Congress has aligned itself with the NC, extending support in all valley seats. In return, the NC will support the Congress in the two Jammu seats and the single seat in Ladakh. Meanwhile, the PDP has pledged unconditional backing to the Congress in Jammu, although its influence in the region remains marginal.

The BJP views this situation favourably as it anticipates a split in anti-BJP votes. The potential support of PDP votes could have secured victories for the NC in Baramulla, and vice versa for the PDP in Anantnag, consolidating all three valley seats under the INDIA bloc. However, the NC's decision reflects its perception of the PDP as a fading force, questioning the rationale behind aiding its resurgence.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP achieved significant success in the Jammu region, securing substantial vote shares in Udhampur and Jammu constituencies. The party also triumphed in Ladakh, supported by the majority Muslim and Buddhist populations.

In contrast, the NC dominated the Kashmir Valley, winning all three seats despite low voter turnout due to separatist boycotts. The BJP's performance in Baramulla, Srinagar, and Anantnag remained modest, highlighting its limited influence in these areas.

Political analysts in Kashmir observe that the NC holds a strong position in Srinagar, where prominent figures like Aga Syed Ruhulla, vocal against Article 370's abrogation, face off against the PDP’s Waheed ur Rehman Para.

The Baramulla seat presents a competitive scenario, with NC’s Omar Abdullah, a former chief minister, and Lone challenging the PDP’s Fayaz Ahmad Mir, a former Rajya Sabha member.

At the time of the writing this piece, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has yet to disclose its candidates for the Kashmir valley, sparking strong speculations that the party might abstain from fielding candidates in this region and instead lend support to other regional parties.

Rumours are circulating about a potential clandestine or direct alliance between the BJP and regional parties such as Sajad Ghani Lone’s JKPC, Altaf Bukhari’s Apni Party, and Ghulam Nabi Azad’s DPAP.

The decision of the Modi government to defer the assembly elections, aligning them separately from the parliamentary election, reflects a lack of confidence in the ground realities of Kashmir.

However, the prevailing disunity among Kashmir's political factions at this crucial juncture is unfortunate for the opposition bloc. The exclusion of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) from the Congress-NC understanding could further fragment votes within Kashmir.

A potential fragmentation of anti-BJP votes could boost the prospects of BJP candidates in constituencies like Baramulla and Anantnag, where delimitation has altered the constituency dynamics, as per media reports.

Anantnag, formerly a stronghold for the BJP with the largest vote share, has undergone demographic changes post-delimitation, including the inclusion of Muslim-concentrated areas from the Jammu region, now known as Anantnag-Rajouri constituency.

Ethnicity rather than religion defines the identity of the Paharis, who follow Hindu, Muslim, and Sikh faiths. Therefore, a Pahari candidate affiliated with the BJP or supported by a regional party endorsed by the BJP could pose a formidable challenge to the NC. The recent decision to grant Scheduled Tribe status to Rajouri's Paharis is expected to garner BJP’s favour among this demographic.

Rajouri-Poonch holds a substantial Kashmiri voter base alongside Pahari and Gujjar tribes. Candidates like Mufti from the PDP, Azad from DPAP, Lahrvi from NC, and Manhas from Apni Party are vying for victory in this constituency.

While the PDP aims to secure Kashmiri votes, the NC pins hopes on its Gujjar candidate to sway Gujjar votes and a significant portion of Kashmiri votes. The BJP’s strategy regarding candidate selection in this constituency remains uncertain.

The Anantnag-Rajouri parliamentary seat comprises 18 assembly seats, with a majority in south Kashmir and a minority in the Jammu region. The voter turnout dynamics in these regions could significantly impact the outcome, potentially favouring a BJP victory if Jammu sees high turnout and south Kashmir experiences low turnout.

In Ladakh, unity among diverse parties is nearly solidified, setting the stage for a substantial defeat for the BJP due to public discontent over unmet promises.

As the BJP highlights its policies for peace and normalcy in the insurgency-hit region, opposition parties emphasise the alleged suppression of democratic space by the BJP government.

The resonance of these contrasting campaigns with voters will be revealed on June 4, adding further intrigue to the political landscape of Jammu and Kashmir.